Correlation
How closely two investments move together
Category: General Finance
Difficulty: Beginner
Definition
A number from -1 to +1 that shows how closely two investments move together. Higher numbers mean they move more similarly.
How Correlation Works
The Correlation Scale
+1.0 (Perfect Match) - When one goes up 10%, the other goes up 10% - No diversification benefit - Very rare in real life
+0.5 (Moderate Match) - Often move in the same direction, but not always - Some diversification benefit - Common between related investments
0 (No Pattern) - No predictable relationship - Great for diversification - Example: Stocks and bonds often near zero
-0.5 (Opposite Pattern) - Often move in opposite directions - Excellent diversification - Natural hedge against losses
-1.0 (Perfect Opposite) - When one goes up 10%, the other goes down 10% - Can eliminate all risk - Almost never happens
Why Correlation Matters
For Risk Reduction - Low correlation = better diversification - High correlation = little protection - Mix uncorrelated investments to reduce volatility
Common Correlations - U.S. large-cap stocks: 0.7 to 0.9 (high) - Stocks vs. bonds: 0.0 to 0.3 (low) - Stocks vs. gold: -0.1 to 0.2 (low) - Same sector stocks: 0.6 to 0.8 (high)
What Changes Correlation
Market Conditions
- Crisis periods: Everything falls together (correlation goes to +1)
- Normal times: More varied patterns
- Bull markets: Lower correlations
- Bear markets: Higher correlations
Time Factors
- Correlations change over time
- Long-term patterns differ from short-term
- Recent data may not predict future relationships
Practical Applications
Building Portfolios
- Combine assets with low correlation
- Donât just look at returnsâcheck correlation
- Geographic diversification helps lower correlation
- Different asset classes (stocks, bonds, real estate) help
Simple Rules
- If correlation is above 0.7, limited diversification benefit
- Mix of stocks and bonds typically provides good diversification
- International investments can lower overall correlation
- Donât own too many similar investments
Limitations
- Past correlation doesnât guarantee future correlation
- Crisis periods break normal correlation patterns
- Correlations between most assets increase during market stress
External Resources
- Academic Research: Portfolio Diversification and Correlation - SSRN paper on correlation in portfolio management
- Federal Reserve Research: Asset Correlations During Financial Crises - Government research on correlation behavior