Fundamental Analysis
Reading a companyâs financial report card
Category: Analysis & Research
Difficulty: Beginner
Definition
Looking at a companyâs financial numbers to decide if the stock is a good deal. Like checking a companyâs report card before buying their stock.
The Basic Idea
Stock prices change every second based on emotions and news.
But businesses change slowly based on actual performance.
The opportunity: Sometimes stock prices donât match business reality.
Your job: Figure out what the business is really worth.
What Youâre Looking For
Is This a Good Business?
- Does it make money consistently?
- Is it growing or shrinking?
- Does it have advantages over competitors?
- Is management smart and honest?
Is the Stock Price Fair?
- Are you paying too much?
- Could you get a better deal elsewhere?
- What are similar companies selling for?
- Does the price make sense given the profits?
Three Things to Check
- The Company: Financial health and business strength
- The Industry: Is this a growing or dying business area?
- The Economy: Are conditions good for this type of business?
The Company Report Card
Every public company releases quarterly âreport cardsâ called financial statements. Hereâs what to look for:
Income Statement (The Profit Report)
Shows how much money the company made: - Revenue: Total money coming in - Expenses: Total money going out - Profit: Money left over (revenue minus expenses) - Growth: Is revenue growing each year?
Balance Sheet (What They Own)
Shows the companyâs financial position: - Assets: What they own (cash, buildings, equipment) - Debt: Money they owe to others - Equity: Whatâs left for shareholders - Debt-to-equity: How much they owe vs. own
Cash Flow Statement (Actual Money Movement)
Shows real cash in and out: - Operating cash flow: Cash from running the business - Free cash flow: Cash left after necessary expenses - Cash generation: Is the company generating or burning cash?
Simple Ways to Value Stocks
Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio
What it means: How much you pay for each dollar of profit - Formula: Stock price á annual profit per share - Example: $100 stock with $5 profit = P/E of 20 - Good or bad?: Compare to similar companies - Rule of thumb: P/E under 15 might be cheap, over 25 might be expensive
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
What it means: How much debt vs. ownership - Low debt: Company is safer but might grow slower - High debt: Company is riskier but might grow faster - Red flag: Debt much higher than equity
Profit Margins
What it means: How much profit from each sale - Gross margin: Revenue minus direct costs - Net margin: Revenue minus all costs - Higher is better: More efficient business - Compare to competitors: Are margins improving or declining?
Does This Company Have Advantages?
What Makes a Business Strong?
- Brand power: Do people prefer this company? (Apple, Coca-Cola)
- Network effects: Does it get better with more users? (Facebook, eBay)
- Low costs: Can they make things cheaper than competitors?
- High switching costs: Is it hard for customers to leave?
- Patents or licenses: Do they own something competitors canât copy?
Warning Signs
- Lots of competition: Many companies doing the same thing
- Easy to copy: No special advantages
- Declining industry: Newspapers, brick-and-mortar retail
- Dependent on few customers: Risk if they leave
What Fundamental Analysis Canât Do
Itâs Not Perfect
- Takes time: Need to read lots of reports and numbers
- Past performance: Looking at old data, not future guarantees
- Subjective: Two people might value same company differently
- Market timing: Stock might stay cheap or expensive for years
Markets Are Emotional
- Good companies can have bad stock prices: Market doesnât always care about fundamentals
- Patience required: Takes time for market to recognize value
- No guarantees: Even great analysis can be wrong
Getting Started with Fundamental Analysis
For Beginners
- Pick companies you understand: Start with businesses you know
- Read the annual report: Companyâs own description of their business
- Check basic ratios: P/E, debt levels, profit margins
- Compare to competitors: How do they stack up?
- Look at trends: Are things getting better or worse?
Red Flags to Avoid
- Consistent losses: Company loses money every year
- Too much debt: Debt much higher than yearly profits
- Declining revenue: Sales shrinking year over year
- Management changes: Lots of executives leaving
- Accounting issues: Anything that seems fishy
The Bottom Line
Fundamental analysis is like being a detective. You gather clues from financial statements to figure out if a company is worth buying.
Key point: It works best for patient investors who can wait for the market to recognize good businesses at fair prices.