Technical Analysis
Using price charts to predict stock movements
Understanding how traders use price patterns and trends to time their buying and selling
Category: Analysis & Research
Difficulty: Beginner
Definition
A method of predicting stock prices by looking at charts, price patterns, and trading volume instead of studying the companyâs business fundamentals.
How It Works
Basic Idea
Technical analysts believe:
- Stock prices already include all known information
- Prices move in trends that can be identified
- History repeats - similar patterns happen again
- Human emotions drive predictable price patterns
vs. Fundamental Analysis
- Technical analysis: âWhen should I buy or sell?â
- Fundamental analysis: âWhat should I buy or sell?â
Common Chart Types
Line Charts
- Connect closing prices with a line
- Shows overall trend clearly
- Good for beginners
Candlestick Charts
- Show open, high, low, and close prices
- Green/white = price went up
- Red/black = price went down
- Most popular type
Basic Concepts
Support and Resistance
Support: Price level where buyers typically step in - Stock keeps bouncing off this price - Like a floor the stock price canât break through
Resistance: Price level where sellers typically step in - Stock keeps getting stopped at this price - Like a ceiling the stock price canât break through
Trends
- Uptrend: Series of higher highs and higher lows
- Downtrend: Series of lower highs and lower lows
- Sideways: Price moves in a range
The saying: âThe trend is your friendâ
Popular Indicators
Moving Averages
Average price over specific number of days:
- 50-day moving average: Average of last 50 days
- 200-day moving average: Average of last 200 days
- When stock is above moving average = bullish
- When stock is below moving average = bearish
RSI (Relative Strength Index)
- Scale from 0 to 100
- Above 70 = potentially overbought (might fall)
- Below 30 = potentially oversold (might rise)
Volume
How many shares traded:
- High volume + price rise = strong signal
- Low volume + price rise = weak signal
- âVolume confirms the moveâ
Common Patterns
Breakouts
- Stock breaks above resistance = potential to go higher
- Stock breaks below support = potential to go lower
- Works best with high volume
Double Top/Bottom
- Price hits same level twice and fails
- Often signals trend reversal
- Needs confirmation with volume
Limitations
Why It May Not Work
- Markets can be unpredictable
- Patterns sometimes fail
- News can override technical signals
- Past performance doesnât guarantee future results
Criticisms
- Some say itâs like reading tea leaves
- Academic studies show mixed results
- Can become self-fulfilling prophecy
Practical Tips
For Beginners
- Start with simple concepts (support, resistance, trends)
- Donât try to learn everything at once
- Practice with paper trading first
- Focus on major timeframes (daily charts)
Risk Management
- Always have a stop-loss plan
- Donât risk more than you can afford to lose
- Technical analysis works better for timing than picking stocks
- Combine with common sense
Common Mistakes
- Seeing patterns that arenât there
- Ignoring fundamental news
- Trading too frequently
- Not having a plan before entering trades
External Resources
- Educational: Technical Analysis Basics - SEC investor education on technical analysis
- Chart Platform: StockCharts.com School - Free educational resources on chart reading